几天前，ARM首席执行官Warren East在财报会表示，董事会与股东长期以来一直想买AMD，由于后者目前正重估战略，眼下机会大增。

 

要在3年前，这定会引来嘲笑。因为，当时ARM与AMD一个身在通信市场，一个身在PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC领域，谁也不买谁的账。

 

那Warren East是借机给投资人讲故事吗？要知道，一个多月来，ARM股价大幅飙升。

 

笔者认为，ARM买下AMD可能未必成行，人们在批评英特尔移动互联网战略受困于处理器功耗难题时，可能对ARM移动互联网现有优势地位过于乐观了。或者说，他的话，变相传达的是ARM的一种危机感。面对英特尔、IPS" title="MIPS">MIPS等强敌，它不能等着对手突破低功耗技术障碍，必须尽快拓展新出路。

 

过去几年，ARM在物理IP、工具等方面做了垂直整合，但在64位处理器技术及高主频方面并未显出优势，目前还缺乏主流操作系统微软的更多支持。

 

上述这些是AMD的强项。AMD虽被英特尔长期压制，但却是PC产业链最大的制衡力量。业内甚至认为，AMD之所以落后英特尔，非技术所致，而是商业与运营不力。

 

ARM如能买下AMD，既能掌控手机与平板产业链，也能渗透至少20%~30%的PC市场，等于说通吃产业上游了。

 

但这合理的商业逻辑却不大可行。业内有观点认为，主要或许是财力不够，ARM年营收仅6亿美元左右，属于“小而美”企业，AMD则是个大块头。但笔者认为，上述ARM收购AMD不可行并不在于财务问题——依ARM地位，获得财务杠杆不难——而最重要的是各自的模式：ARM为授权模式，即将架构与专利授权给许多处理器设计企业，而英特尔则是自己设计处理器；ARM收购AMD，等于跟自己原合作伙伴打架。另一方面，AMD架构来自英特尔，专利权自然掌握在英特尔手中，ARM收购AMD，等于为英特尔打工。

 

笔者去年曾分析过英特尔收购ARM不具可行性，理由异曲同工。如果成真，在ARM授权模式下生活的许多处理器企业将直面生死——除非英特尔改变商业模式，走向开放授权，但短期内几乎看不到任何希望。截至目前，英特尔架构的处理器企业仅4家。

 

ARM与AMD之间是否就没了变通合作机会？当然有，而且同样会让英特尔紧张。那就是AMD主动出击，既沿用英特尔架构，也购买ARM授权。前者用来打击英特尔PC产业，后者用来拓展智能手机与平板市场。由于AMD2009年已淡化制造业，抛弃了类似英特尔的IDM模式，这并不妨害现有运营模式。

 

因此，笔者认为，与其说是收购，不如说是合作与融合。前不久，AMD已经传出或将购买ARM授权，以拓展平板市场。事实上，AMD的显示处理器中，早有ARM技术。

 

如果“ARM+AMD”的双A合作成真，并走向深入，借助AMD的处理器设计力量、基于微软系统的方案以及PC产业链，有望快速形成真正颠覆手机与PC产业的核心力量。事实上，英特尔已经采用相像的动作。去年它收购了英飞凌的无线业务，而后者的核心产品正是基于ARM的架构。

 

大概会有人问，苹果iPad已在手机与PC交融地带让人惊奇，还有什么值得期待的呢？那不过是一种过渡形态，其中的处理器基于ARM架构，连苹果自身都承认并非最理想的产品。看起来，一个真正的产业融合时代还没有到来，到时候谁能胜出，要看现在谁能将对立阵营的资源融合得更快。